Only great minds can read this

fi yuo cna raed tihs, yuo hvae a sgtrane mnid too 
Cna yuo raed tihs? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. 
i cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt!

At the peak of our oil addiction (another article for the company's magasine)

As we pass the point of global peak production of oil, now is a good time consider just how addicted you and your business are to oil and your exposure to increased oil prices.

The end of ‘easy oil’

Almost every year for 150 years, the oil industry has produced more than it did the year before and demand for oil increases at 2 per cent per year. For all practical purposes oil is a finite, fast-diminishing and, perhaps more importantly, unique resource that no amount of so-called alternatives can replace. Many experts now warn that we have passed the point of global peak production. The issue at hand is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of peak production.

The end of ‘cheap oil’

Statistics New Zealand reports of more volatility in petrol prices since 1999: Some of the factors contributing to this volatility have been concerns about security of supply caused by political uncertainty in the Middle East and growing demand from China and India to name but a few factors. At the time of writing, September 2007, the price of standard crude oil was at historic high of US$83.90/barrel, which is a dramatic increase compared to the long-term average of around US$25/barrel.

Oil to burn and oil to build

Consumers tend to think of oil largely as a fuel that powers cars and airplanes, fuels industry or heats homes. But oil and natural gas is also used as a raw material for manufactured goods including carpets, PVC pipes and window frames and plastic boxes that use a blend of chemicals from oil and natural gas and foam cups and nylon, which are largely made from oil-based chemicals. In other words, with a global decline in oil production the cost of everything from travel, transport, heating, agriculture, trade, and anything made of plastic will rise.

Strategies to adapt

Instead of a take-make-waste approach the end of cheap and easy oil will inevitably drive us to re-evaluate our use of oil-based products. Just as scrap metal can be more economical than newly mined and smelted material, scrap plastic comes into its own as the price of oil and gas for fresh plastic climbs.

For transport there are substitutes to fossil fuels in the form of biofuels or electric vehicles, which is particularly sensible in NZ if demand can be matched met with clean electricity supply from hydropower.

Price sensitivity may be a motivator enough to reduce private and business dependence on oil, but environmental and equity concerns are equally valid considerations. Environmentally, carbon dioxide and methane from production and burning of oil and gas are major contributors to global warming and climate change. Morally, one may question our right to be the last generation with access to economically viable oil. It is hard to imagine a world without oil but this may very well be reality by the middle of this century unless we cut down. 

APEC is here

Most of Sydney has been shut down now as the leaders from the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC does not stand for "Australia Pushing Export Coal" as one organisation suggested) is here to set the direction for the majority of the worlds population and similarly for the most polluting and resource hungry countries in the world.

I got the opportunity to work with WWF on a briefing paper for the delegates on the impacts of climate change in the APEC countries. Basically a summary of the 4th IPCC report that came out earlier this year. Unfortunately the Prime Minister of Australia ruled out the possibility that there would be any agreements on emissions reductions. It's borderline silly of Howard and Bush to not take the scientific communities almost desperate warnings serious enough to act. Especially since it would cost next to nothing in the long run and the benefits are enormous. But then again - most of the avoided damage and benefits would be amongst the poor and vulnerable, and one is starting to realise that that is not a priority for the APEC.

Nine months later - it's finally out!

When I started working with BRANZ in September 2006 I got thrown right into project managing an assessment of the need to to adapt buildings in New Zealand to climate change. Granted, I had no idea that buildings needed adapting to climate change, even less so how one would assess it. And New Zealand,,, well I could find it on a map and I knew they are fiercely good at rugby. Of course I had seen all three Lord of the Rings movies. And kiwi fruit is not only tasty but also healthy. However impressive, it was doubtful how far this knowledge would get me in the capacity of sustainability scientist?

But all was considered and planned for. I was reassured that first there would be training and a gradual honeymoon into this new world. A workshop had been planned for me to meet and greet with the project team.  All under the supervision and capable lead of the woman who currently was managing the project. Eventually she would go on maternity leave and I would take over, but before that she was going to hold my hand for a few weeks and make the transition very smooth.

On arrival my first day she was already in labour. Absolutely not according to the agreed schedule! The project was handed over in less than an hour before she rushed off to give birth. One of the executives dryly observed, how rude of her... Of course I ended up in charge of my own - smooth start - workshop. Will never have any illusions what so ever that the flown in and gathered experts around the table were too impressed at all with the new adopting father's experience and authority in the field.

Nine months later in this brand new world of buildings scientists, climatologists, social scientists, economists and government people - we've finally given birth to a 160+ pages baby. The next step is to get over to Wellington to show off and baptise this little beast in front of government and insurance people. Then, with some luck, we might even get to graduate the bastard at the Sustainable Buildings conference in Auckland in November. Who would had imagined? And it's even available at UNFCCC's web library (but then again if you know what that acronym means you're likely a fellow carbon counting tree-hugger nerd).

European Happy Planet Index

Every day I get a bunch of emails from climate change professionals around the world on the Climate-l email list. Most of the time it's rather technical stuff from people measuring methane, analysing policies or informing about clean development projects. But just the other day a great piece of research by nef (the new economics foundation) came out with some findings that should appeal to us all - or at least so I imagine. They head on confronted some questions that are always there in the frame, but never really in the picture:

How good are our economies at producing happiness for the people? 

or

How much actual "good" is generated in the process of emitting greenhouse gas emissions?

The perception from listening to governments and industries around the world is that carbon emissions are necessary evil, very difficult to reduce and part of a global system that we better not tamper with. A neo-classical economic system that's been perfected over centuries to deliver wealth and rewards to a select group of people. And there certainly seem to be some more juice to squeeze out and put in the bank before it's time to address sustainability in any meaningful way. But what is it we so furiously burn our coal and oil for? What do we really get from it that's worth having? Let's have a look at what the study found:

The European Happy Planet Index - an index of carbon efficiency and well-being in the EU reveals for the first time the carbon efficiency with which 30 European nations produce lives of different relative length and life satisfaction for their citizens. nef's analysis also looks back over the last 40 years and comes worrying conclusions in an age of climate change, when it is more important than ever that we use our resources efficiently. nef's Index reveals that:

* Europe as a whole has become less efficient, not more, in translating fossil fuel use into measurable human well being. The Index reveals that Europe as a whole is less carbon efficient now than it was in 1961.

* Across Europe people report comparable levels of well-being whether their lifestyles imply the need for the resources of six and a half, or just one planet like Earth. The message is that people are just as likely to lead satisfied lives whether their levels of consumption are very low or high.

* Iceland tops the Index. Scandinavian countries are the most efficient – achieving the highest levels of well-being in Europe at relatively low environmental cost with Sweden and Norway joining Iceland at the top of the HPI table. Iceland’s combination of strong social policies and extensive use of renewable energy demonstrate that living within our environmental means doesn’t mean sacrificing human well-being – in fact, it could even make us happier.

* The UK comes a poor 21st out of the 30 countries analysed, and nations that have most closely followed the Anglo-Saxon, strongly market-led economic model show up as the least efficient on the Index.

The European Happy Planet Index: An Index of carbon efficiency and well-being

Fast Food Nation

It's not often that movies manage to really get to you. But fast food nation really shook me a the core. I'm trying to remember when a movie got through like that before... I suppose it must have been the Corporation and maybe even the recent Blood Diamond. The common, and scary, theme seems to be a society moving forward on its own momentum. A society - and maybe more accurately - an economy where the development is driven forward by separated pigeon holes of interests and motivations. They all make sense, or are justifiable, in their own context, but when added together they combine to a creation that nobody seems to have asked for or wanted. It's very tempting to look away and delegate the responsibility to governments, experts, the media, the UN, Green Peace or Amnesty. It's all so far away, yet it is happening everywhere. Who has the time, money or energy to live the way we know we aught to? So, babysteps forward... at least  after seeing Fast Food Nation, there will be no more meat going into this body before I'm convinced it's organic and produced in a humane fashion.

Dalai Lama in Sydney

We were gonna take the ferry yesterday morning to go see Dalai Lama in the city, but for the second time this week the sea was too stormy so we had to take replacement buses from Manly to the city. Fortunately the good Lama brought some sunshine and a delightful sense of humour with him. I was a bit surprised to see how playful and casual he is. Coincidentally the rain started to pour down again after he left the park. It's been windy and rainy in Sydney for at least a week now. Massive floods all around and freezing cold in the apartment. Admittedly one does get soft after too much time away from the trademark Gothenburgish driving rain...